India: Please Don't Go Down the Bush-Cheney Road - Instablogs
India: Please Don't Go Down the Bush-Cheney Road
Denis , Geneve: Nov 30 2008
Made Popular Nov 30 2008
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India: Please Don't Go Down the Bush-Cheney Road
Many Indians have called the attacks in Mumbai “India’s 9/11.” I can feel that country’s anguish over these horrific and indiscriminate acts of terror.

Most Indian observers, however, were critical in 2001 and after of how exactly the Bush administration (by which we apparently mainly mean Dick Cheney) responded to September 11. They were right, and they would do well to remember their own critique at this fateful moment.

What where the major mistakes of the United States government, and how might India avoid repeating them?

Remember asymmetry

The Bush administration was convinced that 9/11 could not have been the work of a small, independent terrorist organization. They insisted that Iraq must somehow have been behind it. States are used to dealing with other states, and military and intelligence agencies are fixated on state rivals. But Bush and Cheney were wrong. We have entered an era of asymmetrical terrorism threats, in which relatively small groups can inflict substantial damage.

The Bush administration clung to its conviction of an Iraq-al-Qaeda operational cooperation despite the excellent evidence, which the FBI and CIA quickly uncovered, that the money had all come via the UAE from Paksitan and Afghanistan. There was never any money trail back to the Iraqi government.

Many Indian officials and much of the Indian public is falling into the Cheney fallacy. It is being argued that the terrorists fought as trained guerrillas, and implied that only a state (i.e. Pakistan) could have given them that sort of training.

But to the extent that the terrorists were professional fighters, they could have come by their training in many ways. Some might have been ex-military in Britain or Pakistan. Or they might have interned in some training camp somewhere. Some could have fought as vigilantes in Afghanistan or Iraq. They needn’t be state-backed.

Keep your eye on the ball

The Bush administration took its eye off al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and instead put most of its resources into confronting Iraq. But Iraq had nothing to do with al-Qaeda or the Taliban. Eventually this American fickleness allowed both al-Qaeda and the Taliban to regroup.

Likewise, India should not allow itself to be distracted by implausible conspiracy theories about high Pakistani officials wanting to destroy the oberoi Hotel in Mumbai. (Does that even make any sense?) Focusing on a conventional state threat alone will leave the country unprepared to meet further asymmetrical, guerrilla-style attacks.

Avoid Easy Bigotry about National Character

Many Americans decided after 9/11 that since 13 of the hijackers were Saudi Wahhabis, there is something evil about Wahhabism and Saudi Arabia. But Saudi Arabia itself was attacked repeatedly by al-Qaeda in 2003-2006 and waged a major national struggle against it. You can’t tar a whole people with the brush of a few nationals that turn to terrorism.

Worse, a whole industry of Islamphobia grew up, with dedicated television programs (0′Reilly, Glen Beck), specialized sermonizers, and political hatchetmen (Giuliani). Persons born in the Middle East or Pakistan were systematically harassed at airports. And the stigmatization of Muslim Americans and Arab Americans was used as a wedge to attack liberals and leftists, as well, however illogical the juxtaposition may seem.

There is a danger in India as we speak of mob action against Muslims, which will ineluctably drag the country into communal violence. The terrorists that attacked Mumbai were not Muslims in any meaningful sense of the word. They were cultists. Some of them brought stocks of alcohol for the siege they knew they would provoke. They were not pious.
They killed and wounded Muslims along with other kinds of Indians.

Muslims in general must not be punished for the actions of a handful of unbalanced fanatics. Down that road lies the end of civilization. It should be remembered that Hindu extremists have killed 100 Christians in eastern India in recent weeks. But that would be no excuse for a Christian crusade against Hindus or Hinduism.

Likewise, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, as a Sikh, will remember the dark days when PM Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards after she had sent the Indian security forces into the Golden Temple, and the mob attacks on Sikhs in Delhi that took place in the aftermath. Blaming all Sikhs for the actions of a few was wrong then. It would be wrong now if applied to Muslims.

Address Security Flaws, but Keep Civil Liberties Strong

The 9/11 hijackings exploited three simple flaws in airline security of a procedural sort. Cockpit doors were not though to need strengthening. It was assumed that hijackers could not fly planes. And no one expected hijackers to kill themselves. Once those assumptions are no longer made, security is already much better. Likewise, the Mumbai terrorists exploited flaws in coastal, urban and hotel security, which need to be addressed.

But Bush and Cheney hardly contented themselves with counter-terrorism measures. They dropped a thousand-page “p.a.t.r.i.o.t. act” on Congress one night and insisted they vote on it the next day. They created outlaw spaces like Guantanamo and engaged in torture (or encouraged allies to torture for them). They railroaded innocent people. They deeply damaged American democracy.

India’s own democracy has all along been fragile. I actually travelled in India in summer of 1976 when Indira Gandhi had declared “Emergency,” i.e., had suspended civil liberties and democracy (the only such period in Indian history since 1947). India’s leadership must not allow a handful of terrorists to push the country into another Emergency. It is not always possible for lapsed democracies to recover their liberties once they are undermined.

Avoid War

The Bush administration fought two major wars in the aftermath of 9/11 but never able to kill or capture the top al-Qaeda leadership. Conventional warfare did not actually destroy the Taliban, who later experienced a resurgence. The attack on Iraq destabilized the eastern stretches of the Middle East, which will be fragile and will face the threat of further wars for some time to come.

War with Pakistan over the Mumbai attacks would be a huge error. President Asaf Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani certainly did not have anything to do with those attacks. Indeed, the bombing of the Islamabad Marriott, which was intended to kill them, was done by exactly the same sort of people as attacked Mumbai. Nor was Chief of Staff Ashfaq Kiyani involved. Is it possible that a military cell under Gen. Pervez Musharraf trained Lashkar-e Tayiba terrorists for attacks in Kashmir, and then some of the LET went rogue and decided to hit Mumbai instead? Yes. But to interpret such a thing as a Pakistan government operation would be incorrect.

With a new civilian government, headed by politicians who have themselves suffered from Muslim extremism and terrorism, Pakistan could be an increasingly important security partner for India. Allowing past enmities to derail these potentialities for detente would be most unwise.

Don’t Swing to the Right

The American public, traumatized by 9/11 and misled by propaganda from corporate media, swung right. Instead of rebuking Bush and Cheney for their sins against the Republic, for their illegal war on Iraq, for their gutting of the Bill of Rights, for their Orwellian techniques of governance, the public gave them another 4 years in 2004. This Himalayan error of judgment allowed Bush and Cheney to go on, like giant termites, undermining the economic and legal foundations of American values and prosperity.

The fundamentalist, rightwing Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party, which has extensive links with Hindu extremist groups, is already attacking the secular, left-of-center Congress Party for allegedly being soft on Muslim terrorism. The BJP almost dragged India into a nuclear war with Pakistan in 2002, and it seeded RSS extremists in the civil bureaucracy, and for the Indian public to return it to power now would risk further geopolitical and domestic tensions.

India may well become a global superpower during the coming century. The choices it makes now on how it will deal with this threat of terrorism will help determine what kind of country it will be, and what kind of globalimpact it will have. While it may be hypocritical of an American to hope that New Delhi deals with its crisis better than we did, it bespeaks my confidence in the country that I believe it can.

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3 Stars
India is much more tolerant that that. I think the people of India know that Pakistan is a banana republic and the government has little control over the country.

When Bhenezir Bhutto was assassinated and Marriot hotel demolished, it was clear that there are groups within the country which are all out to Kill innocent people and they don’t even spare their own countrymen.

Also the Americans and rest of the world has to remember that Pakistan has now become the Safe Haven for Terrorists and its not really about How India ... but more about how the world reacts to this situation.

Maybe its time to send a UN force into Pakistan to take care of the terrorists as what is happening there is not just India’s problem alone we also have to help the pakistani people and liberate them from terror
1 Stars
Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Vishal, Sunday, November 30, 2008, 10:50:59 AM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
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Denis, you are correct. India should refrain from reacting the way post 26/11 as the U.S. reacted post 9/11. Pakistan is a failed state, rather a rogue one where terrorists rule the roast. These terrorists were propped up by the U.S. in league with the obliging Pakistani rulers. Now the Pakistani including the ruling class in the South Asia is paying a heavy price for doing so as terrorists have turned into the Frankenstein Monsters. But Indian hawks should not be allowed to blur the Indian policies while dealing terrorism.
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Anil, Sunday, November 30, 2008, 11:38:55 AM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Shiv
india, India
sir, we are not usa & pakistan is not afganistan
our borders are vulnerable
i am not afraid to die once & for all instead of dying every moment
but any step once taken can not be undone
so let us think from our mind & feel from our heart
instead of doing vice versa
indian military resources have been severely degraded over the years so the conventional age also may not be there
so just think & look around before we leap in to the black hole
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Shiv, Sunday, November 30, 2008, 11:45:46 AM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
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The terrorists, whoever they are, need to be taught a lesson but not without a proper strategy.Yes, U.S. might have committed a blunder in Iraq but it has managed to keep a safe distance from terrorists at home.

We should not forget that it’s common man who is being butchered all the time by the terrorists.Why do you expect ,all the time, display of common sense from the ordinary citizens? A soft stance at this time is only going to make the matters worse.We need to take some real action.We have heard lot in flowery words.
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Your some of the arguments are flawed.True, U.S. failed to highlight proper reasons to attack Iraq and had to rely on concocted facts.However, at this point of time, equating India’s possible attack on Pakistan with the attack of U.S. on Iraq is devoid of substance.

I am saying so because Iraq did not pose any threat to America’s internal security.On the other hand , Pakistan has been direct source of terror with nefarious designs aimed at sabotaging internal security of India.America attacked Iraq for its vested interests but if India is going to attack Pakistan it will not have any vested interest but some very real and valid reasons to do so.

U.S. has no moral ground to teach India about dos and don’ts.It chose to treat Pakistan as its trusted ally in global war on terror,ignoring the dangerous heads there.What it has done to stop such developments there other then delivering pompous statements from time to time? Such paradoxes on part of U.S. has alone made this region volatile.

It’s not the issue from moving from left to right,much less an issue involving the minorities.It’s an issue that involves eliminating the elements ,which have become threat for the integrity of nation.If that means taking strong strong actions,let the Indian government take it keeping at bay the concerns of pseudo intellectuals.

The need of the hour is strong action and not strong word.
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello ARVIND, My intent was to tell everybody to calm down. Wait for the facts to emerge, if ever. Because macro-operators will control the situation for their own purposes. Sunday, November 30, 2008, 6:15:24 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
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Dear Denis,

I will like to quote Vishal: ” India is much more tolerant that that.”

We have always set new standards whenever we have been asked to display restraint and patience by the world community.Naturally, we are bound to calm down.One can never be in that state of mind for a long time!!

However,I am trying to tell that these dangerous heads need to be taught a proper lesson the U.S. or Britain way. Wait and watch policy ,which we have become used to, is not going to yield desired result now.

And the real problem in taking some strong action is that some might perceive it as a war against the minorities.And such an attempt has already started.If you go through the reports presented by Western media you will find that that they are treating the attack of terrorists as a backlash of frustrated minorities.There is an also an attempt to link the attacks with Kashmir issue.

May I know if we are so unsure of the real facts,what has made the Western media so cocksure about its wild assertions ? Why are they floating wrong impressions ?
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello ARVIND, Have you ever asked yourself, who controls the western media? I’d tell you but Michael C would cut me off for being biased. I do not know what the media situation in India is like, but it is part of my job to deal with media, in Europe and Africa. I recently gave a press conference in Tangiers, Morocco; 27 local newspapers, of various outlooks, sent reporters. 20 asked for follow up interviews; of the interviews half were supportive of our project and half opposed. By ’western media’, I assume you mean North American and European. Pick any city, tell me how many newspapers exist and how may different opinions. My wife’s brother is editor of a prominent Swiss newspaper; his personal politics are left of center. When I confront him with the right wing bias in his newspaper, he explains that it is not his bias, but it is good business, because he must publish what the advertisers demand, otherwise they are out of business. Sunday, November 30, 2008, 6:56:14 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
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Michael C
Lyon, France
I agree with Denis here.

This only happened a few days ago and the knives are already out.

What if Pakistan trained these guys?

Does India declare war?

Will all the commenters sign up?

No, we’ll just have to wait and see and, if Pakistan is behind this, then we’ll just have to find a way to dialogue. As I hope the USA will with Iran.

We’ll also have to hope that the political hypocisy which means that India is almost the only major power who’s politicians do not stand together in times of national crisis doesn’t lead to them continuing their inflammatory appeals for revenge and demissions and I-can-do-Betters.

That’s the point of the (quite well written) article.

I understand that passions are enflamed (I’m an anglo-saxon and I remember 9/11) but Indians, just like Pakistanis, hve EVERYTHING TO LOSE in an escalation of tension between their countries.

(Except for armchair ”let’s invade” safe-in-a-corner warriors and religious bigots and bar-counter terrorists af all colours).

We have a saying in English, and I’d like to address it to those who advocate military steps or an (enforced by nature) UN presence in Pakistan.

”Don’t ask for it. You might just get it”.

Thank You.
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Michael, There is another saying, ”People get the government they deserve.” Dear people, wake up and be careful! Sunday, November 30, 2008, 7:14:02 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
So why U.S.is engaged in global war on terror? Why it’s not having dialogue with likes of Osama ? It should invite such terrorists for series of dialogue?
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Michael C
Lyon, France
You’re right!

(But not 100% LOL. Because if you ARE, Indian people had better start thinking otherwise, and quick!!)

I personally think Indian politics are in a disastrous and deleterious state......
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Michael C
Lyon, France
Correct. The Americans spend more on arms than all other countries combined.

But, if you don’t mind my saying so, that’s just relative.

America is a vry big country with a big defence budget.

But do you know which country sells the most arms in relation to its population? (The ”per capita” calculation?)

France.

By far.

No country has such a relatively large arms business than France.

(Just for info....)
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
And what about the Obama’s repeated insistence that he’ll be the one to ”kill or capture Osama bin Laden ”?The president-elect has stated that he’ll ”stamp out al Qaeda once and for all.”

I think U.S.citizens deserved better approach from Obama.It appears he has no faith in power of dialogue!!The President has changed but not the maddening desire to kill Osama.Why there is no change in approach?


Anyway, I have faith in dialogues.But at the same time I know well that sometimes force is necessary to bring desired result.I am neither interested in war nor in bloodshed.But then not interested in meaningless dialogues either.If you are interested in dialogue and the other side is interested in killing people then what are you going to do? Have killings side-by-side dialogues !!!

So dialogues are not going to produce desired result if we do not have proper strategy to eliminate the terrorists.

MINIMIZING.LOCALIZING.DEMYTHOLOGIZING.That’s what we need to do at present to curb terrorism.

*************************************

I am presenting excerpts from an interesting article ”Obama V.Obsama” by Ralph Peters which he penned for Newyork Post.



There’s no new magic formula waiting to be applied: This effort is still about skill, persistence and luck.

Yes, luck matters in the Intelligence world. Sometimes you just have to wait for your opponent to make one small, fatal mistake, or for a disaffected walk-in, or for a chance sighting by a source you’ve spent years cultivating.


A fateful error amateurs make about intelligence is to assume that any problem can be solved if we hurl more resources at it. But top-of-the-game intelligence work is about quality, not quantity. It doesn’t help to have a dozen seasonal-hire carpenters all whacking at the same nail - better to have one skilled carpenter on the job.

Reduce the power and reach of the enemy, pushing him to the margins where, instead of posing a strategic threat, he’s just a nuisance.


This is a very long-term struggle, transcending any single administration. Winning doesn’t mean achieving a terror-free world - an impossible goal - but minimizing, localizing and demythologizing the damage terrorists do.

It’s our job to kill terrorists, but only the cultures from which they spring can kill the terror impulse.

This doesn’t mean the struggle isn’t worth it - it’s essential. But we need to have realistic expectations as to what we can achieve in such a self-tormenting region as the greater Middle East.

************************************
1 Stars
Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello ARVIND, That is the question of every reasonable person on earth. My answer is that the so called global war on terror is good for business. The US spends more on weapons than every other country on earth combined. Weapons systems are a major export. Where do Pakistan and India buy their weapons. In the historical and economic contexts, wars is simply a means of transferring wealth from the populace to the oligarch. In other words, you pay with your life and your money, the weapons manufacturer distributes the profit. Look at the facts; bin Laden was in the employ of the CIA, a few years ago, the Taliban was allied with the US. Who trained them, who armed them. In a short time, you will see the Taliban and the US allied again. Sunday, November 30, 2008, 8:08:22 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Abhinav Nigam
Bangalore, India
Denis, your talk about Indian politics being in a pathetic state makes me wonder, what are your views about US politics ? After all, their ”standing together in times of trouble” is what ultimately resulted in Iraq. Maybe its the divisive nature of Indian politics itself which will never allow India to take such a step.

Besides, India doing to Pakistan, what USA did to Iran or Afghanistan is simply not possible, just for the logistics of it. The gap in strength and weaponry is not comparable in the 2 cases, besides we have adjoining borders and are both nuclear capable.

On a separate note, I can’t figure out that if Pakistan is really fighting the enemy within itself, and clearly not doing a very good job at it, why won’t it allow a UN peacekeeping force or such to aid it. I can see that Pakistani people are equally distraught at all the violence, and that such a force can do real good in terms of eliminating terror camps as well as freeing areas which government is unable to control. I can also understand that allowing such a force inside Pakistan would probably mean the government losing some face, though these are desperate times and need some desperate measures, but why is the induction of such a force in Pakistan being criticized by the author of the blog ?a
2 Stars
Well said, ABHINAV.

However, you should have addressed the comment to Michael and not Denis.What you have refuted has been the words of MIchael and not Denis.
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Michael C
Lyon, France
@ Arvind.

You are right of course, they were my words. It’s just what I think. I happen to think that the political manoeuvring and slugfight by the two major Indam parties, while the tragedy was STILL GOING ON, was ugly and particularly vulgar. It is something I have not seen in the MIDDLE of such events in other countries, particularly the UK, France, the US.

Of course there were heated debates, but later, and I think politicians should pull together in times of a crisis. The blame game can wait until afterwards......

Ordinary people need to see their countries united, in as much as possible, during hard times.
Moreover, I don’t see what American politics has to do with it. That’s not the subject here, and introducing that would only (maybe deliberately) be a means of deflecting the isue.

Thanks.
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Michael C
Lyon, France
Oh, I know. ALL my friends say I know nothing, and that I am naive and blind. God I just wish I could have real opinions like anyone else.

I mean, my comments do not DESERVE consideration or an answer. Those reading them can just invectivise and put up personal judgements to avoid wasting time discussing their peurile content.

But, as I say, that’s because they obviously are more realistic and objective than myself.

My most abject apologies.

I deserved that comment. I mean, did you see how IGNORANTLY JUDGEMENTAL OF OTHERS my comment was??

Snif.
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
ARVIND K.PANDEY
PRAYAG, India
@Michael

Politicians,after all, are politicians.They are no better than vultures.Such a display of inhuman gesture by the politicians is an universal phenomenon.Let’s not blame the Indian politicians.And don’t forget that India is no China.It has allowed freedom of expression.It’s another thing that it’s a most misused thing in a mature democracy called India.Had politicians used brains other than using mouths,we would not have witnessed 26/11.
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Michael C
Lyon, France
@ Arvind,

Whatever one’s point of view on Mumbai, it is CERTAINLY true that much of what the world suffers, and India too, is the result of self-serving and self-glorifying politicians.

And, of course, India is NO China. (And on the subject of China, the lack of freedoms there will surely one day put limits on how much China will be able to progress in this world unless things change...)

Seeya!
(Global Perspectives)
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Michael, You are a blind man walking, Michael, if you have not seen political infighting, while people suffer. It is the very nature of politicians, Indian, Pakistani, French, or US. Your sentiments are sweet, your naiveté is stunning. Monday, December 1, 2008, 6:15:05 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Michael, Please pardon my outburst. You are entitled to your opinions. I simply wish that you and others had access to facts, not propaganda. Since you live in Lyon, which is between me and Geneve, I offer to take you inside the UN chambers, while debate is in session. It may be your epiphany. Monday, December 1, 2008, 6:43:15 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Michael C
Lyon, France
No problem.

We all lose our tempers.

Concerning my opinion, while some may not agree with it, I can however give you this ”fact”, (but not the links, don’t have the time right now).

All the major Indian dailies have carried articles saying exactly the same thing. ALL of them.

The difference is that they were VERY violently critical of the in-fighting that went on, much too soon, in their opinion.

It’s just a point of view. Some reactions in the opinion columnes were for what was going on, but the majority were against.

A point of view is not propaganda, unless the Indian press is guilty of propaganda too. Depends what one calls propaganda, I suppose....

Seeya!!
1 Stars
Michael C
Lyon, France
Oh, and Geneva?

Done deal.
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Michael, You git it, if you can stand it. I’ll need a copy of your passport, to get security clearance. No hurry, things are not active at the moment. Holidays, et al. Monday, December 1, 2008, 7:08:15 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
1 Stars
Michael C
Lyon, France
”Stand it?”

Oh, I’ll live LOL!! Seen much, MUCH worse.

Geneva is only 90 minutes drive from here, so it’s eminently possible.

However, concerning (what I well understand are necessary) photocops and details,

we need to talk about that offsite, for obvious reasons.

(And, if I go there, I’ll have a chance to wear my really cool Italian-style suit and elegant tie!!!)

Yeah!!
(Global Perspectives)
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Denis
Geneve, Switzerland
Hello Michael, be patient; I type slowly and am writing you offsite. Monday, December 1, 2008, 9:25:31 PM, you wrote: >
(Global Perspectives)
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